科研动态

受国内市场需求和价格等影响，在与缅甸、老挝接壤的云南边境地区，活牛走私现象屡禁不止，成为口蹄疫传入我国的主要风险途径。为分析云南中缅边境活牛走私传入口蹄疫的可能性，收集云南边境地区活牛非法调入途径、路线和数量等信息，利用“情景树”法建立传入风险随机模型进行仿真分析。结果显示：从云南中缅边境走私调入1头牛，口蹄疫传入我国的概率为0.81%（95%CI，0.43%~1.47%），且每年约有14 017头（95%CI，7 520~25 660头）口蹄疫感染牛自中缅边境走私进入云南省；口蹄疫通过中缅边境活牛走私传入我国的风险取决于缅甸北部活牛市场内的口蹄疫流行率。结果表明，云南中缅边境活牛走私导致口蹄疫传入我国的可能性不容忽视。建议对缅甸活牛以及过境缅甸活牛入境前进行口蹄疫疫苗免疫，并在云南当地有效监管下屠宰；允许从东南亚国家进口符合我国进口检验标准的冷冻去骨肉。本研究首次对口蹄疫通过中缅边境活牛走私传入我国的风险进行了定量评估，为我国口蹄疫防控提供了重要信息和数据。

Quantitative Risk Assessment on FMD Introduced into China via Smuggled Live Cattle across China-Myanmar Border in Yunnan Province

As being affected by the need and price in domestic markets，activities of smuggling live cattle have continued in Yunnan frontier areas bordering Myanmar and Laos in spite of repeated prohibition，which have posed an important risk pathway for foot and mouth disease（FMD）to be introduced into China. In order to analyze the probability of FMD introduced into China via smuggled live cattle across China-Myanmar border in Yunnan Province，collect the information concerning the pathways，routes and quantity of illegally imported live cattle，a stochastic model of entry risk was established and analyzed by the“scene tree”. The results showed that when one cattle was smuggled via the border，the probability to introduce FMD into China was 0.81%（95%CI，0.43%–1.47%），what was worse，about 14 017 cattle（95%CI，720–25 660 cattle）infected with FMD were smuggled into Yunnan Province every year；and such risk depended on the prevalence in cattle markets in northern Myanmar. It was concluded that the probability to introduce FMD into China through smuggling live cattle from Myanmar should not be ignored. In view of the above，the live cattle that were from or transit via Myanmar should be vaccinated against FMD prior to entry，and slaughtered under effective supervision by local authorities；and frozen boneless meat that conformed to China's import inspection standards should be allowed to be imported from Southeast Asian countries. In the study，the risk to introduce FMD into China via China-Myanmar border was quantitatively evaluated for the first time，which provided important information and data for the prevention and control of FMD in China.

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